Like the past couple Ravens’ opponents, I have been mailing it in lately, so I’m obligated to give my reader(s) a worthwhile entry. Forthcoming is a break down the Playoff Race for the Wild Card in the AFC…
I was always a firm believer that 10-6 wasn’t always good enough to get to the playoffs. Often there is a 10-6 team on the outside looking in. Last year, the Pats were 11-5 and missed out on the tournament. Oddly enough, this year a 9-7 team or teams might fill the Wild Card spot(s). If anything this shows that no matter your record, each week is more critical than the previous.
Current standings:
#5 Seed – Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
#6 Seed – Denver Broncos (8-6)
Outside, looking in with a 7-7 Record:
• Jacksonville
• Miami
• New York Jets
• Pittsburgh
• Tennessee
• Houston
I’ve analyzed the tiebreaker rules and here’s the breakdown (N.B. there are different tiebreakers for 2 or 3+ teams that are tied):
Baltimore has the inside track. They control their destiny with games @ Pittsburgh and @ Oakland. Win and they’re in! But that’s easier said than done heading to the Big Ketchup Bottle and the Black Hole.
From here out, I’m taking a realistic scenario assuming that Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh and wins @ Oakland finishing 9-7, and a best case scenario for ALL the current 7-7 teams winning out. I have given the teams’ remaining schedule but will not divulge pass that.
Even with a loss to Pittsburgh, we would own tiebreakers over a bunch of teams. Here’s how things might shake out:
• Denver – The best case scenario for Denver would put them in as the #5 seed at 10-6. But, assuming the Broncos finish 9-7, we would beat them out because we walloped them in Week 8 and would win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Remaining games @ PHI and vs. KC.
• Pittsburgh – Splitting the matchup with Pittsburgh, we would beat them out because Pittsburgh lost to the Brownies giving us a better Division record. Remaining games vs. BAL and @ Miami
• Jacksonville – The Jags would own the tiebreaker over us because they would have a better Conference record at 8-4; we would be 7-5. Remaining games @ NE and vs. CLE.
• Miami – This is where it gets real dicey! We didn’t play Miami, so head-to-head wouldn’t apply (tiebreaker #1). We would have the same conference record (tiebreaker #2) and the same record of common opponents (tiebreaker #3), so it would go to “strength of victory” (tiebreaker #4). Strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. Too tough to calculate and speculate at this point. Remaining games vs. HOU and vs. PITT.
• New York Jets – If it comes down to ONLY us and them, they would have a better common opponent record than us so they would beat us out. BUT, here’s where it gets real screwy – if there are 3+ teams, and two of them are from the same Division, then you take the best team from that Division to eliminate at least one team. So, if it comes down to Baltimore, Miami and NYJ, the ‘phins beat out NYJ because Miami beat NYJ twice to eliminate the Jets. Then, it comes to Miami and Baltimore and we beat out Miami! Understand? No? Just trust me! Remaining games @ INDY and vs. CIN.
• Tennessee – Who would have thought starting 0-6 that the Titans would still be in the thick of it? But simply put, we would beat out Tennessee because we would have a better conference record than them. Remaining games vs. SD and @ SEA.
• Houston – Unfortunately if it was only the Texans and us, we would lose the common opponent tiebreaker to them. But, if Jacksonville and/or Tennessee is in the picture then it changes things. This is very complicated. If Hou, Jax, Ravens and Tenn, for two spots, then Jax would take #5 and we would take #6. If those three and us for #6 seed then Jax would take it. If only Hou, Tenn and Ravens, then we would take any available spots because the Titans have a better division record knocking out Houston and we own the tiebreaker over Tenn. If only Hou, Jax, and Ravens, then Jax would take #5 and Hou would take #6 leaving us out. Remaining games @ MIA and vs. NE.
There are so many different scenarios that nothing can be written in stone yet. Some of these teams play each other so one would knock out the other (Week 16 – Houston @ Miami, Week 17 – Pittsburgh @ Miami). Also, all of these teams have to play at least one Playoff contending team. As we have seen throughout this crazy season, anything is possible but let’s hope that Jacksonville and Houston falter at least once down the stretch!
This was a lot more time consuming than I thought. Let’s hope the Ravens win and some of these other teams lose to make things a lot easier to analyze next week for my sake.
MERRY CHRISTMAS to you and yours!!
